RB Leipzig hope to see history repeat itself as they welcome Real Madrid on Tuesday in a Champions League Round of 16 match. Our soccer odds have Madrid favored to walk away with the victory.
Last season’s Champions League group stage saw these two sides paired up, and Leipzig was able to pull off a 3-2 upset at Red Bull Arena. If they hope to make lightning strike twice, they’ll need to improve on a run of form that's seen them take just four points from their five Bundesliga fixtures since returning from the winter break.
Real Madrid took a massive step towards reclaiming the La Liga crown, dominating Girona 4-0 at the weekend to move five points clear with just 14 matches remaining. Victory came at a cost, however, with star midfielder Jude Bellingham likely to miss out due to an ankle sprain.
Our RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid free betting picks for Tuesday, February 13 explain that while there are multiple ways to bet on this UCL affair, one in particular is quite enticing for the bold bettor.
RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid best odds
RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid picks and predictions
I was simply going to give out a Real Madrid victory for my best bet. After all, they’re getting plus-money odds on the 3-way moneyline, and they’re simply in better form and possess too much talent for RB Leipzig to handle.
Instead, I’m going to get a bit greedy. There’s a better option on the market, one that is paying a price too high for me to ignore and offers strong value for the risk.
Only three teams in the Bundesliga have scored more goals this season than Leipzig. Not only do they love to hit teams on the break, scoring 26 transition goals across all competitions, but they feature multiple weapons on corners and free kicks.
For a Real Madrid back line that has been somewhat taped together due to injuries, that’s a real concern. This weekend’s win saw them start Aurelien Tchouameni — a defensive midfielder by trade — at center-back, alongside Nacho who stands under 6-feet tall.
The expected lineup for Madrid would feature just two players at least 6-feet in height. Add a backup goalkeeper to the mix, and you have a scenario where Leipzig can look to capitalize on aerial battles.
That’s problematic given Leipzig’s prowess on set pieces. Leipzig leads the Bundesliga with 33 fouls drawn that led to a shot. They have the second-most goals from set pieces this season in the Bundesliga, having bagged 11 so far.
And forward Benjamin Sesko’s four goals from headers are second most to only Harry Kane, with teammate Lois Openda having three himself. In fact, both players scored on headers in their 2-2 draw at the weekend with FC Augsburg.
Ancelotti is aware of the threat posed on set pieces, and it’s likely to dictate who he starts in place of Bellingham. It’s also something he’ll have to consider for his back line as well, which not only will struggle with Openda’s pace but must deal with their lack of height.
“Leipzig are very strong on set pieces,” he said at his pre-match press conference on Wednesday, “and for Brahim, this isn’t his best quality, he’s not a giant. Carvajal as a center-back has played very well. I have to think about it.”
All that said, Madrid might be the best team in Europe — and that’s with the likes of Thibaut Courtois, Eder Militao, David Alaba, and Antonio Rudiger all missing large chunks of the season defensively.
Even without Bellingham, they’re a real threat to a Leipzig team that has been bleeding goals. The German side has conceded 11 goals in their five matches in 2024, and that’s with keeping a clean sheet against lowly Union Berlin.
Bayer Leverkusen, who currently sits atop the Bundesliga table, secured a 3-1 win on January 24 at Red Bull Arena. They scored twice in the final half hour to secure all three points and played a style that won’t be that much different than what Real Madrid will employ.
For those reasons, I’m passing up the easier play and going for the bigger payday. Take Madrid to win with Leipzig finding a way to score, something they’ve managed to do in 12 of their 14 home fixtures. With TonyBet offering this at +245 odds, it’s a play with strong value and high probability of coming to fruition.
My best bet: Real Madrid to win + both teams to score (+245 at TonyBet)
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RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid same-game parlay
Real Madrid to win
Both teams to score: Yes
Over 9.5 corners
With our best bet being a combo play, we’ll simply add one additional leg for our SGP.
Leipzig have attempted the third-most corner kicks in the Bundesliga this season, but they’re also prone to conceding quite a few against quality opposition. Two of their last four opponents have attempted at least nine corners. Now they’re facing a side that ranks second in La Liga in corners earned.
Real Madrid attempted at least five corners in all six UCL group stage outings and had between seven and 16 in four of those fixtures. With the propensity both sides have for earning corners, I’ll back them to combine for at least 10.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid side and Over/Under analysis
Real Madrid are favored to win on the 3-way line, but the Bellingham injury has moved the line just a bit with odds going up from +110 before the weekend. Now you can get them at +125, while Leipzig is +225 to win with the draw priced up to +275.
Madrid are unbeaten over their last five, with just one draw, and their only defeats this season have both come at the hands of Atletico Madrid — only one of which came in regulation.
Leipzig have won and drawn their last two but had a three-match losing skid prior. The good news for them is they’ll be at nearly full health, while Madrid will be missing multiple key players who have been out long-term.
The total is sitting at 3.0 on the Asian line at multiple books, with the Under favored around -125 to -130. It’s come down a bit with the Bellingham news, but Madrid still have Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo leading a dangerous attack, and Brahim Diaz or Joselu each offer various threats, whomever comes in for the English midfielder.
Given our best bet, I expect at least three goals in this match and would play the Over 3.0 in this situation. We should get a push at worst, but the juice on Over 2.5 makes that option unplayable.
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RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid game info
| Location: | Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 13, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
| Weather: | Calm conditions, 53F. |
RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid key injuries
RB Leipzig: Amadou Haidara M (Doubtful).
Real Madrid: Jude Bellingham M (Doubtful), Eder Militao D (Out), Thibaut Courtois GK (Out).
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