互惠贸易协定的价值

双边和区域自由贸易协定的数量 (自由贸易协定) has grown rapidly in the last ten years. Some analysts have questioned the wisdom of FTAs because they can distort markets and divert trade from nonmember exporters. A recent study of older agreements by the Economic Research Service of USDA, 互惠贸易协定 – 对美国的影响. 商品和制成品市场的国内外供应商, 得出结论，这些协议使出口商能够增加与成员国进口商的贸易, 贸易转移有限.

研究分析了 11 相互贸易协定 (Rta) 同 69 参与国帮助塑造商品出口 (原料和半成品) 和制成食品 (早餐麦片, 烘焙食品, 意大利面, ç³–æžœ, 啤酒, 等等) 对于中美. and other suppliers. 该 11 协议占 78 至 92 percent of world agricul­tural trade during 1975-2005. Ten of the 11 RTAs expanded trade in either the commodity and/or the manu­factured food markets of member countries. Nine of the 11 RTAs also expanded exports to a lesser degree to nonmember countries. A few agreements that typically granted very limited cross-border trade preference to developing countries failed to have a positive effect on member country trade.

Three agreements involved mostly developed countries. The EU had a 95 欧盟内部商品食品贸易的增长百分比以及 93 之间的制成品增加百分比 1975 和 2005 相比没有协议, 增长率 3 每年百分比. The three NAFTA countries, 美国。, 加拿大和墨西哥, 有一个 8 制成品贸易之间的每年增长百分比 1989 和 2005 还有一个 3 percent annual growth in commodity foods. Over that same time, 澳大利亚和新西兰的《更紧密的经济关系协定》 6 制成品和 3 每年商品食品中的百分比.

在发展中国家中, 安第斯自由贸易协定 (精神), 中美洲共同市场 (CACM), 东部和南部非洲共同市场 (承诺的) 和南美共同市场 (南方共同市场) increased trade in both commodity and manufactured foods compared to having no agreement. The Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement (北美自由贸易协定) had no affect on trade in either category. The South African Development Community (南部非洲发展共同体) 仅增加了商品内的整体内部贸易, 而《东南亚国家联盟自由贸易协定》 (东盟) 与南亚优惠贸易安排 (SAPTA) only had gains in manufactured foods. The authors believe the small land areas of ASEAN, SAPTA和GAFTA解释了他们在商品贸易方面缺乏增长.

东盟是唯一与协定外国家的农业贸易增长快于协定内贸易的协定. The countries have similar comparative advantages in agriculture within the bloc and need to trade outside the bloc to meet their food needs. The GAFTA countries also appear to be uncompetitive internationally in both food categories, 南部非洲发展共同体国家在制成食品方面没有竞争力.

东盟国家歧视美国. 出口下降的制成品供应商 3 每年以来的百分比 1993 compared to the estimates with no agreement. Other suppliers increased exports indicating that ASEAN is a relatively open market except for U.S. 制品. COMERSA countries did not discriminate against U.S. 加工食品, 但是其他供应商的出口下降了 3.5 每年.

The authors believe the growth in trade between non-member countries fits the concept that trade liberalization in one area “begets more liberalization.” It probably also reflects increased competitiveness from efficiencies caused by competition within the RTAs.

数据表明贸易转移 (欧盟国家从低成本转向贸易, 非成员国向更高的成本迈进, 集团国家) 发生在欧盟国家, GAFTA and SAPTA. Because of the EU agreement, 中美. 对欧盟国家的商品出口从 1975 至 2005 通过 66 百分比和非美国. 供应商有一个 29 percent decline compared to not having an agreement. The EU countries do not appear to discriminate against U.S. or other country suppliers of manufactured foods. GAFTA countries lowered imports of commodity and manufactured foods from the U.S. 通过 8-9 自开始以来每年 1998 和其他供应商 3-4 百分. 中美. 对SAPTA国家的商品出口下降了 12 自此以来平均每年 1996, 但非美国. suppliers had no declines. Both the U.S. 和其他国家/地区与美国的制成品转移. 下来 10 每年的百分比和其他下降 3 百分.

作者总结, “The majority of the 11 在这项研究中研究的贸易协议创造了商品和制成品市场的贸易，同时将相对较少的贸易转移给了外部供应商, 欧盟商品食品进口除外. 这一发现表明，在国际食品市场上，区域贸易协定的收益通常超过成本。.

Some agreements not in the analysis like the U.S.-Central America FTA have come into force in recent years and will impact trading relationships. Plus, 过去几年中达成了许多新协议，其中包括一些先进的发展中国家, such as the U.S.-Korea FTA and the EU-Korea FTA. Studies on these in coming years will tell us more about how RTAs impact trade. Much has also changed in older agreements since 2005, 此分析的最后数据.

Interest in these agreements should not diminish the importance of the current WTO agreements or the value of a new one like the hoped for Doha Round agreement. All of these RTAs operate under the umbrella of WTO article XXIV as long as they apply to “substantially all trade”, which is open to interpretation. Despite valid concerns about RTA being ‘stumbling blocs’ to freer trade, the ERS analysis reinforces the concept of RTAs as ‘building blocks’ on the road to freer trade. Until a method can be designed to achieve consensus on a new WTO agreement, 相互贸易协定的重要性将继续提高.

罗斯·科维斯（Ross Korves）是有关贸易和技术真相的经济政策分析师